Clinical Diagnosis
Roles: symptom, sign, differential-diagnosis, prevalence, base-rate, test, false-positive, false-negative, zebra, horse
The process of identifying a disease or condition from its signs and symptoms, guided by probabilistic reasoning about what is common versus what is rare. As a source domain, clinical diagnosis provides a decision framework for any situation where an observer must interpret ambiguous signals: start with the most likely explanation, rule it out before considering exotic alternatives, and remember that the prior probability of a condition matters more than the vividness of its presentation. The frame encodes the tension between thoroughness (never miss a rare disease) and efficiency (most hoofbeats are horses).